Research Area

Advanced data assembly and analytics for threat assessment and mitigation

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Lead Institution

University of Cape Town, South Africa

The Partners

Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Senegal (Dr Cheikh Loucoubar), Université de Yaoundé I, Cameroon (Professor Akindeh Nji), University of Nairobi, Kenya (Professor Thumbi Mwangi), University of Pretoria, South Africa (Professor Heinrich Bohlmann), Zimbabwe Infectious Disease Modelling Consortium, National Blood Service (Dr Tonderai Mapako)

Consortium for Leadership of Epidemiological economic Analysis for epidemic Response in Africa (CLEAR-Africa)

While pandemic policy responses such as movement restrictions and closures of non-essential services aimed to control SARS-COV-2 infection rates, their variable health and economic impact across socio-economic groups, economic sectors and countries was seldom measured. This project aims to protect and enhance national and regional health, wellbeing and resilience by providing epidemiological-economic modelling frameworks to support decision-making across the health, economic and social dimensions.

Flexible models of hypothetical infectious disease ("Disease X") will be developed to run scenario-based prospective simulations: each will explore different outbreak dynamics, transmission pathways and possible mitigation strategies. Linking macroeconomic models with epidemiological models will provide a holistic analytical framework enabling each country team to test the effects of epidemiological interventions and policies on the economy.

Additionally, the Consortium will address the skills gap on the continent, training a new generation of African researchers to conduct this analysis. Ultimately, this research will ensure that future policy responses to pandemics in Africa are more holistic, equitably considering both health and economic resilience, saving both lives and livelihoods and enhancing preparedness at the national and regional levels.

About the Consortium Lead

Prof Sheetal Silal is the Director the Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA) at the University of Cape Town in South Africa and Honorary Visiting Research Fellow in Tropical Disease Modelling at Oxford University. Her primary research area is the development and application of mathematical transmission models of vector-borne diseases and vaccine preventable diseases in South Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and globally, with a focus on supporting policy development and implementation. She recently led the development of the COVID-19 dynamic transmission models as part of the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium for the Government of South Africa and continues this research to support pandemic preparedness. She is the Chair of the WHO Immunization and Vaccine Implementation Research Advisory Committee and a member of the WHO Collaboratory Technical Advisory Group.